This morning, I’m thinking about the flu. Scientists warn that when the Asian “Bird Flu” mutates and gains the ability to jump from human to human easily, we would probably be looking at a pandemic like the “Spanish Flu” of 1918. According to this Standford site, 675,000 Americans died. According to US Census estimates, that is the only year–in our history–when the US population decreased. In 1918 the US population was roughly 100 million. Today it is roughly 300 million. So, with today’s numbers, the flu would have killed roughly 1.8 million people. An AP article published by wired.com confirms this estimate.

The US is pretty spoiled, now, when it comes to disasters. The big San Francisco earthquake of 1989 killed 67 people. Hurricane Katrina killed 1000 people. The September 11 attacks killed 3000 people. Our War in Iraq has so far cost the lives of 2000 soldiers. The rest of the developed world is much the same. The recent terrorist bombings in England and Spain have together killed roughly 300, for example.

I’m not saying these deaths aren’t tragic, but we are getting off easy. The rest of the world copes with much worse, all the time. This weekend’s earthquake in Pakistan killed more than 20,000. Last year’s Indonesian tsunami killed almost 300,000, it is now believed. Since the US invasion of Iraq, between 20,000 and 100,000 Iraqis have died violently, depending on the source.

We don’t have the slightest idea what that’s like, here. So, imagine an epidemic in the US that strikes every state, city, town and kills 1.8 million people. One in four people get sick. One in 166 die.

Now, consider the fact that it’s probably going to happen in the next three years.

Have a nice day.

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